Projecting Census Bureau estimates of births, deaths, and migration to 2000 we have a picture of what drives Chicago’s growth. Between 1990 and 2000, approximately 1.4 million births will have occurred. They provide a demographic boost of about 380 babies per day. But there’s an offsetting process, of course: mortality. Chicago will have suffered about 656,000 deaths in this decade, about 180 per day on average. So the demographic circle of life – natural increase – generates a net increase of 200 souls daily in the Chicago PMSA, the primary metropolitan statistical area. The ten-year gain from natural increase is about 730,000 persons.

These spiritual comings and goings are matched by a complex series of more pedestrian events – domestic and international migration. There’s a lot to love about Chicago. People all over the world, including many who have read Carl Sandburg, have their mind’s eye on the city. And some Chicagoans join the US foreign service or decide to retire in Guadalajara, for example, and head overseas. The net impact on Chicago of international moves during the period 1990-2000 is a projected gain of 293,000 persons. Virtually all of those immigrants will contribute to an already diverse cosmopolitan culture.

Other Chicago residents, however, have seen the promised land and it looks warm and sunny. No more harsh winds across the IC tracks; they are heading South, West, and maybe even East. Domestic out-migrants, the demographic term for an area’s leavers who don’t venture overseas, have scattered to the tune of as least 587,000 (net) in this decade. That’s a negative hit to Chicago’s population with an economic reverberation indicative of more than concerns about the weather. Luckily, some domestic out-migrants are replaced by an equally determined set of domestic in-migrants who see opportunity in the winds of economic change enveloping Chicago.

Taking net international and net domestic migration together, Chicago’s demographic landscape is “internationalizing” rapidly. The ten-year net effect of all migration trends is a loss of nearly 200,000 residents. But that’s the result of about 600,000 net demestic out-migrants offset by a net gain of nearly 400,000 net international migrants.

Of course, the 200,000 net loss to migration is in turn offset by the gain of 730,000 through natural increase. When all is said and done, by 2000, Chicago will have at least a half million new residents. That demographic gain is a positive indicator of the life expectancy of the Chicago area economy. But one “net” out-migrant will be sorely missed – Michael Jordan.