Metropolitan area growth over the next five years offers something for everyone. Atlanta attracts families – black, white, Hispanic and other ethnicities. Some come for economic opportunity. Others seek the solace of the South in lieu of urban chaos in the North. Elsewhere, newly hatched desert lovers push Phoenix past the 3.5 million-population mark. Dallas, ever the champion of football and other dreams, attracts a worldly clientele destined for Texas greatness -- or at least the company of other dreamers.

Source: Projections by TGE Demographics based on Census Bureau estimates.

Las Vegas – oh, Las Vegas lights, camera, action – is the beneficiary of modern boom times as the greater metro area welcomes former Californians and others seeking the substance behind the florescence.

Demographics may not be destiny but metropolitan area trends surely point that way. These statistics, extrapolated from the latest Census Bureau estimates, illustrate the “where” of human interest perhaps more than the “why.” Most metropolitan growth is determined by migration. And migrants seek (and create along the way) opportunity. Businesses that track the why and wherefore of migration can anticipate growth curves long before the government publishes the “official statistics.”

Every metro tells its own story. From ethnic roots to conglomerates come and gone, a city and its suburbs speak volumes. For some -- like Houston (projected five-year growth 322,685) and Washington, DC-MD-VA-WV (projected five-year growth 295,952) -- the tales describe resurgence following a fall. Others, like Chicago (up 288,075) and Boston (up 270,002), write history daily in their streets and newspapers. All metros, however, broadcast their stories worldwide to future migrants.

Business practitioners, unlike many migrants, need to keep two feet on the ground in assessing metro futures. They should also watch two numbers: absolute growth and percentage increase. The biggest metros often attract the most migrants. Their powerful urban images extend through time and space. New York, Boston, and Chicago will always attract people from around the globe. But the relative newcomers over the next five years – Phoenix-Mesa, AZ (up 20.3 percent), Austin-San Marcos, TX (up 18.9 percent), and Provo-Orem, UT 16.2 percent) – are in the process of creating new visions of urbanity and lifestyle. The opportunities they offer are fresh but somewhat untested for the long haul.

Some metro areas are growing at twice the national rate. Any metro growing faster than 10 percent in five years is growing at double the national population growth rate. These tables illustrate significant focal points of growth in an otherwise slow-growing nation. Absolute increases can point to places whose infrastructures are being pushing to the limits. Water resources, highways, housing, and schools usually require the mobilization of public commitment to growth. In the fastest-growing metros, the public is still unpacking.

These tables (available as an Excel file at the bottom of this column) show the top 50 metropolitan areas for absolute growth and relative (or percentage) increase. The time frame is 1998 to 2003. The basis for the projections is a detailed extrapolation of the latest Census Bureau county-level population estimates. All demographic components of change were taken into account: births, deaths, net domestic migration, and net international migration. These projections even take into account estimates of undocumented immigration. No demographic projection is a “prediction” of the future. These projections represent the application of reasonable assumptions to the best available population statistics from the US Bureau of the Census.