It isnt very often that events in the national news have any large impact on Business Geographics. Certainly, the latest chip or software announcements will affect us, but generally they are part of an evolution rather than a major change in direction. This recent announcement of AT&Ts acquisition of Media One quickly followed by Microsofts inclusion as the set top box operating system of choice, is a major change and I think it will effect us all.
Here is why. Like most American households, we have cable. There are three TV sets tied to the cable. There are four computers used by Hal Jr., my wife, the remaining 4 kids and sometimes, me. All but one of the computers is on a network. I also have two phone lines, one for regular phone calls and the other dedicated to my FAX.
But, what is really cool is my cable modem. The Internet is on all the time and the access is very fast. My supplier, the local cable company is also supplying telephone service in several other markets. Hmmm .whats next?
This bunch of electronics would be better off in some sort of collective. That collective I have thought for some time should be the home server -- a central server that distributes video, the Internet, data, telephone and FAX. This morphing of AT&T, Media One and Microsoft could provide just that.
Why have a TV and a computer when they can be the same? After all, your computer already answers the phone, plays avi and wav files and streams video from the Web. Why have two phone lines when you just need one cable line? It will all be on one wire. The key to all this is cheap computer power both in the cable box and the PC.
AT&T has the communication technology, Media One the video distribution systems and broadband Web access and it will most likely be Microsofts NT, or something similar, that makes it all go. I would think NT will probably be the operating system of choice, not CE, because of security, fire walls, and the support for UPS; it also spawns a whole new industry of home server techs. The cable box will be more than just a tuner and descrambler. It will be the server. You wont need local dial tone either, because it will come from your local cable company.
At my house, the gas company has a gizmo on the outside of the house that the meter reader plugs into to see how many cubic feet I have used this month. That could tie to the home server and be read remotely. I wouldnt be aware it was read, just as now I never know when the meter reader has been here.
Where does the Business Geographics element come in to this? Most of us have seen on TV the great AT&T control centers with the giant maps that show the trunk lines between cities and the loading of those circuits.
Now with Microsoft controlling this new ventures operating system, these maps could be a great application for MapPoint 2000. MP2K could display the trunk loading in real time against a map that was dynamic (read zoom-able) to show loading on sub-circuits down to the neighborhood. How about thematics in real-time that show who is watching what TV programs, buying what products from the shopping channel mapped against ad promotions, current cell phone activity and maybe a window of real-time weather display from a satellite? Also easy to put in place would be modeling and predicting electric or gas usage.
We could do the same in reverse from our home server. Go see the traffic on the Interstate before you drive it just look at the satellite image. If you are a marketing type, the new product you launched yesterday would already have sales results, by geography, and the data was downloaded to your home server. The line between working at home and the office gets even fuzzier.
This could be some very amazing stuff. But, the more we know, the more they know and if you are paranoid, it might be the beginning of a difficult time. 1984, just a little bit late.
The saving factor may well be the traditional great service, low rates and reliability and creditability that cable has always had. Your computer will still work alone, and to disconnect from the system well, it is only one wire. You still have the phone. Of course, since you will be banking online, paying your utility bills online, it may become harder and harder to disconnect the cable.
The world is changing very quickly and we will all be enticed to get into the world of broadband. Lets hope it will be a great new world and not a brave new world.
