Google and Microsoft: Further Disruption Ahead
By: Adena Schutzberg and Joe Francica
| (Apr 04, 2006) |
Users of @Last's, now Google's, SketchUp and Vexcel's,
soon to be Microsoft's (pending government approvals), UltraCam ground
stations and other imagery and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR)
processing tools are scratching
their heads this week. What will happen to these products? That's one
question to ponder. Google's newest employees have maintained that
SketchUp will stay SketchUp and not to worry. Microsoft has been mum,
just as it was on the acquisition of GeoTango late last year.
Let's look at these acquisitions from the other side, that is, from the
Google and Microsoft side. Several things are going on at once: there's
a move further into geodata creation tools; a potential expansion of
the user bases of the products (especially SketchUp); and perhaps some
stealing of market share, reputation and money from existing geospatial
players.
Google and Geodata
Google's use of geodata to date has been via licensing. In one sense,
the company simply republishes data from a variety of public and
private providers in Google Local and Google Earth. The company
certainly does some work on knitting the datasets together but for the
most part, the company is not in the data creation business. It's been
in the classic
position, defined by Tim O'Reilly, of being not the
owner of the data (it came "too late" to that party) but rather the
organizer/indexer/publisher of that data. And, most would agree, Google
does a fine job in that role. Google is good at it, not just in the
realm of geodata, but also for the Web in general, shopping, images,
etc.
That said, Google is in the data-creation-tool business in other areas.
For example, Google acquired Blogger,
a blogging platform. That's a
tool used to create content; content that Google can then
organize/index/publish. Google acquired Picasa, a digital photo
management tool. While you don't create images in Picasa, you do add
content, from your digital camera to your hard drive. Then Picasa
(Google) can organize/index/publish that content. Gmail is another tool
to create content; content Google can organize/index/publish. We could
go on, but we think you see where we are heading.
Now, there's a bit of fogginess in these products in how “publicly" the
content is shared. Blogs are typically public. Picasa will keep your
images on your desktop or upload them to the Web. E-mail is relatively
private. Still, the boundaries of private and public are being
shattered via tools for music sharing (Napster et. al.) and image
sharing (Flickr, et. al.).
Google is counting on a mix of private and public content to make its
acquisition of @Last and SketchUp successful. The vision parallels
these other offerings: some content will be kept with the individual
and other content will be shared. SketchUp buildings might populate a
virtual globe, Google Earth, and perhaps myriad other worlds for gaming
and other pursuits. We can imagine free layers of 3D SketchUp
buildings that individuals, companies, or even Google would host to
make Google Earth more representative of the real thing. Other layers
might require a micro payment or a subscription for access. Some
buildings would be proprietary with appropriate licensing, others would
be open source. What Google, via SketchUp, will do in time is just what
these other services mentioned above have done: they've captured the
creativity, energy and, frankly, free labor of the planet to build
content.
Certainly, there are issues for populating Google Earth, especially if
Google wants it to meet some accuracy requirements. How will areas be
kept up to date? Who would, for example, knock down all the virtual
buildings when the next Katrina hits? We have a vision of a Wiki/open
source sort of process where everyone can make changes, submit content,
but not everyone can commit those changes. How Google will manage this,
or what organization it might buy to do that management, remains to be
seen. Still, that's where we think the acquisition is headed. And, we
think it's pretty exciting.
Now, is it realistic? Some CAD editors have suggested that Google may
be in over its head taking on a CAD company since it doesn't fully
appreciate the complexity of the technology. We in the geospatial arena
know how hard it's been to have multiple editors update utility
networks without banging into one another. There have been many
discussions of check in/check out/long transactions/approve/commit in
our years working at GIS software firms. Don't forget that the people
making the changes to these maps were paid professionals, not
potentially everyone on the planet! Defining and maintaining such
processes were, and still are, complicated. But, these are new times,
with new technologies, so we are happy to hope for the best.
Microsoft and Geodata
Microsoft, we'd argue, has been in the geodata business in a more
traditional way than Google. The company has sold packaged map data in
its consumer products (Streets
and Trips), and later for the small
business desktop product MapPoint, for more than a decade. Those
eventually turned into a Web service and now into Virtual Earth, which
powers Live Local.
That said, like Google, the company licenses imagery data, but from
different vendors (Microsoft looks to GeoEye and Pictometry for
imagery, Google to DigitalGlobe and EarthSat). There are some obvious
differences in what the two companies acquired in the last week. Google
acquired an inexpensive, easy-to-use vector creation tool. Microsoft
acquired a company that offers software products in image/digital
elevation model (DEM) analysis and exploitation, and hardware products
including a digital sensor, a film scanner and ground stations. Just to
be clear, non-professionals need not apply to use Vexcel's toolbox,
while even youngsters can get the hang of SketchUp.
So, what did Microsoft want from the deal? The processing technology?
The staff? The hardware side? Our sense is that the first two are most
important, in particular a product called FotoG, which
"allows users to
take random hand-held digital pictures, extract highly accurate
measurements, convert them to 3D, using a CAD program, and produce
models quickly and easily." Basically, it's a way to make 3D models
from imagery, something related to one of GeoTango's product. The
sensor and ground stations? It's hard to imagine Microsoft will want to
be in those businesses, so our guess, just now, is those will be sold
off in time.

A Broader Perspective
Let's take one step further away from these events and place them in
the context of the development of the geospatial marketplace. The
development and acquisitions at both Google and Microsoft parallel the
historical development of the geospatial marketplace almost perfectly.
From their beginnings in the late 60's and early 70's, GIS and CAD were
primarily visualization tools and quickly thereafter became data
acquisition tools. (Raster and vector domains were served by different
software solutions at that point.) Then came the need to process and
integrate other data types including terrain and remotely sensed
imagery in the 80's. The 90's saw the move from file-based systems, and
most GIS technology at least, moved to relational database management
systems. The next problem to tackle was the integration of disparate
data types.
The acquisitions by Microsoft and Google are not merely market
development efforts but true disruptive invasions of the traditional
geospatial marketplace. Perhaps this is "stage two" in GIS market
development, where CAD becomes more closely integrated with GIS. What's
next? Query and analysis. Why? Because, just as was the case for
traditional GIS, the market (be it consumer or professional) will
demand that additional functionality. And that functionality, we need
to remember, presents an opportunity perfectly suited for Google,
already the most widely used search (read 'query') tool. Microsoft is
positioned well here too, since it sells a very powerful relational
database. As we've noted before, a mashup of Google with Oracle Spatial
links a powerful visualization engine with query and data storage.
Oracle is already tackling enterprise search, as it announced
recently.
These events simply highlight that we are just a short hop away from a
major disruption in the geospatial market.
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| Adena, Joe, Your editorial on Google and Microsoft's direction toward expanded data acquisition capabilities raises an interesting issue -- data is becoming the primary spatial asset. The geoindustry has evolved way past dependence on hardware and operating systems. With increasingly effective standardization, we're blowing past dependence on applications software and "platform". Today, we're seeing an increasing awareness of data as the major gating factor in both enterprise systems and consumer applications. Going forward, I think that four data-related elements will gate the geospatial industry: data acquisition, access, integration and data quality. Google and Microsoft are setting a new bar for data acquisition, access and, to some extent, integration. Others are following with even more interesting innovations. It will be interesting to see how our industry will respond to the challenges presented by the incresing dominance of data. I wonder what Open Source data would look like? Dave |
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| Better yet, get users to give you free content! Get users to COMPETE with each other about who provides better free content. Get users to PAY YOU a subscription to provide you with free content! They you really have it made. Look at Flickr (I am a big fan). In a little over a year, Flickr has established itself as THE hub for digital photography. This is a major disruption for the purveyors of stock photography. It looks like something similar is on the way for geospatial data, and your insightful editorial couldn't be timelier. |
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| Where will Microsoft take its new tools and how will it serve up data better than Google? Why is the next OS release (Vista) taking so long? Just a couple of thoughts. |
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| A good editorial encouraging discussion! Data and technology enable change but are not, in themselves, the agent for change. So, while this editorial talks a lot about data and technology, it also has "pointers" to what is really going on. We all agree that Data and Technology are not in and of themselves the product. So, what are we discussing? What is the "end game"? What is the product? It is that all this activity is the necessary precursor to good "decision support". Whether that be an individual deciding to follow a paid link for services in their area (when they zoom in to their house using any of the current mapping portals); or a business seeing spatial patterns against a wider backdrop and using those patterns to make decisions that maximise profit and minimize cost. When people see "what's in it for us" they will contribute. I have suggested, in postings and presentations I have made in public, that what Google, Microsoft, Yahoo can do is provide content to people such that they are then prepared to "help them, help me". At your excellent conference in Philly last year I observed to one of the panel speakers over a few red wines (what else!) that data vendors like Teleatlas and Navteq are in danger of doing to data what GIS vendors have tried to do to technology: lock it up inside high cost, restrictive licensing models. I added that, if they do this, then the portals just might appeal to a possible 300 million people to create the content - ie US content - they can use (they will help you, help them)! He concurred fully and observed that, in their view, this was about 3 years away. (That was 1 year ago!) Google and Microsoft because of their purchasing power and innovative, intelligent staff, are bringing massively disruptive influences to bear on the geospatial vertical market. But they know what generates income and profit. It is ubiquitious access to geospatial data and technology so that everyone feels empowered to make the decision they need in the context they find themselves. That context, whether it be financial, social, personal or professional, at home or at work, will more than likely be made without access to traditional GIS product and data offerings. All strength to their collective arms. regards Simon www.spatialdbadvisor.com |
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