It’s as predictable as taxes and even more painful. As the huge baby boom generation ages, arthritis will blossom. The number of people with arthritis is expected to dramatically increase in the future, growing from 43 million people in 1998 to 60 million by the year 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control. By 2020, nearly 1 in 5 Americans will have arthritis, up from about 1 in 6 in 1995.

Source: CDC , Arthritis Prevalence and Activity Limitations United States, 1990. MMWR 1994; 43(24): 433-438.

The effects of this arthritis explosion will vary from state to state and region to region. “We’ve known arthritis is a serious health issue, but until we analyzed the total picture...we didn’t realize its true effect on our country,” says Dr. Charles G. Helmick, medical officer and epidemiologist for the Centers for Disease Control.

While there are many questions concerning how best to limit the inevitable impact of arthritis, experts agree that the disease will spread hardship to those it touches.

Arthritis is not a fatal disease, yet it does take lives, explains Dr. Robert Meenan, board member of the Arthritis Foundation and dean of the School of Public Health at Boston University. This disease takes life, “not by killing you, but by disabling you, by giving you chronic pain, and by taking away the things you want to do. The impact of that is going to increase.”

You don’t have to look far to find someone with arthritis. Half of all Americans aged 65 or older have arthritis, while 29 percent of people ages 45 to 64 have the disease, according to the Arthritis Foundation. Less than one percent of arthritis sufferers are children.

Like cancer, arthritis is actually a collection of many diseases. The most common type of arthritis, osteoarthritis, usually occurs after age 45. This places more than 73 million baby boomers, who were born between 1946 and 1964, on a collision course with the disease. The oldest baby boomers turned 50 in 1996. By the year 2010, members of this bulge in the population will be 46 to 64 years old--which is an age range commonly associated with the onset of arthritis.

Given the active lifestyle of baby boomers, they are unlikely to go quietly into a life of pain and discomfort. “Baby boomers are not like their parents,” says Meenan. “When my father was 51, he was a classic couch potato.” Meenan predicts that most baby boomers will want to remain physically active.

Arthritis will be a greater problem in some areas than in others. States with the highest share of seniors will see the greatest arthritis presence. “The big driver is age,” says Meenan. In general, the oldest states are in the Midwest and the East, with Florida leading the way. In 1995, 19 percent of Floridians was 65 or older, according to the Census Bureau. Alaska had the smallest percentage of elderly people, with 5 percent of residents 65 or older ? ??????????????????? ?? ??? ????? ?????????? ?? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??? ??? ??????? ????????? ?????????? ???? ?? ??? ? ????????????? ?? ??????? ?? ?????????? ???????? ???? ????????? ?? ??? ? ????????? ?? ??????? ??? ??????? ??????? ?????????? ?? ? ? ? ?? ????????? ?? ??????? ?? ?????????? ???? ???? ????????? ????? ?? ????? ???? ??????? ???????????????? ?? ??? ?????? ??????? ????? ??? ???? ????? ?????? ????? ???? ???? ?? ??????? ?? ????????? ???? ???? ?? ?? ????? ?? ????? ????? ?????? ??????? ????????? ????? ??? ????? ??????? ????? ????????? ????????? ????????????? ????? ??????? ???? ????????? ????? ???? ??? ??? ????? ???? ??? ????????? ?? ?????? ???? ???? ?????????? ???? ????????? ????? ?? ????????? ?? ??????? ?? ??? ?????????? ??? ????????? ?? ??? ? ???? ??? ?? ??????? ?? ??? ?????????? ????????? ???? ????????? ?? ? ? ? ????????? ?? ??? ??????? ??? ??????? ???????? ????????? ????? ?? ??????? ?? ??? ?????????? ??? ????????? ?? ??? ? ???? ??? ?? ??????? ?? ??? ?????????? ????????? ???? ??? ??????? ?? ? ? ???????????? ?????? ???? ???? ????? ??????? ?? ?????? ???? ????????? ?????? ??????? ?? ??? ???? ?? ????? ??????????? ??? ????? ????????? ?????? ??????? ??? ???????? ?????????? ?? ??? ?? ??? ?? ?????????? ??????? ???? ???? ???? ?? ??????? ?? ??? ?????????? ???? ?? ?? ????? ?? ????? ??? ?????????? ??? ??? ??????? ?????? ?? ??????? ?????? ?? ????? ???? ? ????? ?? ??? ??????? ???????? ????? ??????? ???? ???????? ???????????? ?? ??? ?????? ??????? ?????????? ?? ???????? ?? ?? ??? ?? ??? ??????????????? ?????? ?? ??? ???????? ??? ?????? ?????? ???????? ?????????? ???? ???????? ??? ?????????? ?? ????? ?? ??????? ??????? ???? ??? ? ??? ??????????? ??? ??????? ???? ?????? ??????? ? ???? ????????? ??????? ??? ????????????? ?? ??? ? ?? ????????? ? ??????? ?????? ???????? ???? ????????? ?? ?????????? ?? ??? ??????? ?????? ?? ??? ?????? ??? ??????? ??? ??????? ??????? ???????? ?? ? ? ? ??? ?????? ?? ???????? ?? ???? ?? ? ??????? ?? ?? ??????? ?? ??? ?????? ?????? ?????????? ??? ??????? ?????? ?? ????????? ????????? ?? ??? ?????? ????????? ???????? ????? ????? ?????? ??????? ?????????? ??? ??????? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??????? ?????? ?? ??? ???? ?? ????? ??? ?????? ?????? ???????? ????? ?????? ??? ????????? ????????? ??? ??????? ??? ????? ????? ????????????? ??? ?????? ????????????????? ??????? ???? ?????? ????? ?? ???? ????????? ??? ?????????? ?? ??? ????????? ????????? ?? ?????? ???? ?????????? ???? ?????? ????? ?????? ??? ??????? ??? ?????? ????????? ?? ?????? ???? ????????? ?? ???????? ??????? ????????? ????? ????? ?????????? ?????? ????????? ??????? ??? ??? ????????????? ??????? ??????? ??? ?????????? ???????????? ???????? ??????? ?? ??? ????????? ??????? ??????? ? ?????? ??????? ??? ????? ?????? ???? ?????????? ???? ???????? ???? ????? ?????? ???? ?? ?? ??????? ??? ????? ??? ?????? ?? ?????? ?? ?? ????? ???? ?????? ???? ??????????? ??????? ??????? ???? ??? ????? ????????? ?? ??? ?????? ???? ???????????? ?????????????? ???????? ??? ??????? ?????????? ??? ?????? ?? ???????? ??? ?????? ???? ?????????? ?????? ??? ?????? ???? ????????? ???? ???? ??? ?? ???????? ??????? ?? ????? ?????????? ????? ????????? ???? ??????? ?? ??? ???? ????? ??? ?????? ?????? ???? ????????? ?????? ???????? ?????? ???? ???? ? ??? ?????????? ??????? ?????????? ???? ???????? ???? ??? ???????? ????????? ???? ? ?????????? ?? ?????????? ??? ???? ?????? ???? ??????? ??????????? ???????? ??????? ???????? ?? ????? ?????????? ?????????? ?????? ?? ??? ????? ??? ???? ??? ?????????? ????????? ?? ?????? ??? ?? ???????? ?? ?? ??? ????? ?? ??????? ??? ????? ????? ????????? ??? ??? ?????????? ???? ?? ??? ??????????? ???????? ??? ??? ????????? ?????? ?????????? ????? ??? ??? ????? ???? ????? ????????? ??????? ??? ?????? ??? ????? ???????? ???? ???? ??????? ????????? ????? ???????????? ?? ???? ??????? ?????????????????? ????????? ??? ????????? ???? ??? ?? ???????? ?? ????????? ????????? ??? ???? ???? ? ????????? ??????? ?? ???????????? ???????? ????? ???? ?? ?????? ?????????? ??? ?? ????????? ?? ?? ? ????? ?????? ??? ????????? ?? ????? ???????? ???? ?????????????? ?? ??????? ???????????????????? ??? ?????? ?? ????????? ???? ????????? ??????? ?? ???? ?? ???? ??? ???? ????????? ?? ?????? ??? ???????? ?????? ???? ?????????? ?????????????? ????????? ??? ????? ?????????? ???? ??? ????? ???? ?? ??????? ??? ??????? ?? ???? ??? ????????? ????????? ??ll find an increasingly receptive audience.