Global Smallsat Market Continues to Grow Amid Consolidation and Larger Satellite Trends
The global small satellite market is maintaining strong momentum, even as manufacturers and operators face ongoing supply chain disruptions, inflationary pressures, and shifting constellation strategies. According to new analysis from Euroconsult, satellites weighing under 500 kilograms will continue to play a central role in both government and commercial space programs over the next decade.
Between 2023 and 2032, an estimated 26,000+ small satellites are expected to be launched worldwide. Collectively, these deployments represent an average launch mass of approximately 1.5 metric tons per day over the ten-year period—highlighting the scale and persistence of demand for smaller spacecraft platforms.
Mega-Constellations Dominate Volume, Not Value
Two large constellations—Starlink and China’s GuoWang—are projected to account for nearly two-thirds of all small satellites launched during this timeframe. Due to their dense deployment schedules and increasing satellite mass, they will also represent more than 80% of total launch mass within the smallsat category.
However, Euroconsult notes that despite this dominance in volume, these mega-constellations will contribute less than 25% of total market value. Extensive vertical integration and cost efficiencies mean that significant commercial opportunities remain for other manufacturers, integrators, and service providers—particularly in higher-complexity missions.
Market Value Approaches $110 Billion
Euroconsult estimates the cumulative value of the smallsat market will reach approximately $110.5 billion over the next decade. Growth will be supported by:
- Regular constellation replenishment cycles
- Increasingly sophisticated government missions
- Rising demand for Earth observation, communications, and defense-related applications
At the same time, suppliers must navigate persistent challenges, including limited addressable markets, pricing pressure, oversupply risks, and the concentration of demand among a small number of large operators.
Government Investment Remains a Stabilizing Force
Long-term government contracts continue to provide stability and confidence across the sector. Programs such as:
- Europe’s expansion of Copernicus commercial services
- Ongoing government adoption of commercial satcom networks
- Multi-year intelligence and Earth observation contracts in the United States
have helped offset uncertainty in purely commercial markets and reinforce investor confidence.
The war in Ukraine has further highlighted the strategic importance of commercial satellite systems, accelerating government interest in resilient, distributed smallsat architectures.
Shifting Satellite Sizes and Market Perception
While several constellation operators are transitioning toward larger satellite platforms to improve performance and reduce cost per bit, Euroconsult cautions against interpreting this shift as a decline in the smallsat sector. When Starlink and GuoWang are excluded from the analysis, the remainder of the smallsat market is still forecast to grow steadily through the end of the decade.
Emerging space nations are also increasingly pursuing regional autonomy, investing in domestic satellite manufacturing, launch services, and vertically integrated supply chains. This trend is reshaping competitive dynamics while encouraging new entrants to diversify into satellite subsystems, manufacturing, and downstream services.
Outlook
Despite consolidation and evolving satellite form factors, small satellites remain a cornerstone of global space infrastructure. Defense priorities, environmental monitoring, broadband connectivity, and Earth observation continue to drive demand—ensuring that the smallsat market remains both relevant and resilient in the years ahead.
Euroconsult will present deeper insights into these trends during an upcoming briefing at the Small Satellite Conference in Utah, offering a detailed outlook on how market forces will shape the next phase of small satellite development.
